Putin is Running Out of Friends

A cascade of bad news for the Russian president

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One of the most shocking statistics I have heard about Russia’s war against Ukraine comes from Russian military bloggers or “Z bloggers,” relentlessly nationalistic, pro-Kremlin, pro-war journalists, named after the letter Z painted on Russia’s military vehicles when President Putin launched the invasion.

Z bloggers are now reporting these stunning figures:

The average life expectancy of a new recruit—from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone—lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once they are sent onto the battlefield, Russian fighters survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes.

The numbers are so astonishing that they warrant skepticism. But even if they are hyperbolic, they reflect not only the fact that Ukraine is turning the tide against Russia but, just as importantly, that even the war’s most fervent supporters are describing the conflict as a catastrophic meat grinder. The Russian public is discovering that their country is not winning the war. That Putin is not winning.

The new reality on the ground creates a cascade of consequences, none of them good for Putin, who is steadily losing support from people and groups that had backed him unquestioningly. Does Putin have any friends left?

Even President Trump is sounding a little less awed by Putin. After he and his Ukraine-hostile Vice President JD Vance, famously disparaged Ukraine’s President Zelensky in the Oval Office, telling him he had “no cards” in the fight against Russia, Trump now describes Zelensky as “courageous” and acknowledges that he’s doing “pretty well.” But there’s more to Trump’s change of tone than that reluctant recognition.

At the G7 meeting in France earlier this month, Trump surprised his fellow world leaders when he signed on to a muscular statement expressing “unwavering support for Ukraine,” and describing Russia as the aggressor in the war, an obvious fact that Trump has previously denied.

If Trump is cooling toward a less imposing Putin, the Russian population is also finding reasons to be less impressed with their president. Since the 2022 start of the war, Putin sought to insulate them from the consequences of a conflict that he thought would end in days with a dramatic Russian takeover of Kyiv. For years Putin was able to recruit soldiers from remote regions and relegate casualties — the worst news of all — to the influential parts of the country, while the rest of the country got its mostly-good news about the “special operation,” from pro-Kremlin sources. But now Zelensky has sent the war home to Russia.

Ukraine has deployed its unmatched drone expertise deep into Russia, striking oil refineries and airports as far as Moscow. The skies over the capital are regularly darkened by black smoke from explosions. Ukraine is launching wave after wave of attacks, some of them prompting authorities in the capital to suspend operations at Moscow’s airports.

Criticizing Putin there remains a life-threatening activity, but signs of disappointment with the once-idolized president are popping up. Journalists quoting anonymous Muscovites consistently report a shift in sentiment. Here is the Guardian from Moscow:

“Interviews with several people in the orbit of the Russian leader, as well as sources in the Russian business world and western intelligence officials, paint a picture of an isolated leader surrounded by an elite that is becoming rapidly disillusioned, both with the faltering war in Ukraine and the economic downturn at home. ‘There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin,” said a well-connected business leader, adding that there was “a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming.’ ”

The Russian president, as I wrote earlier, is looking very nervous. He remains in control, but he is losing the depth of support he has enjoyed since he came to power a quarter century ago by pulverizing Chechnya and assuring Russians that he would keep them safe and prosperous. The evidence now points to war fatigue, economic frustration, and elite dissatisfaction. That’s not proof that Putin is about to fall, but it’s a dramatic decline from the days when Russians viewed him as relentlessly restoring the country’s former glory.

The sense of a Russian resurgence reached its apogee in 2014, when Putin captured Crimea from Ukraine using “little green men,” unidentified Russian soldiers who took over the historically-significant peninsula without a fight. I recall a Facebook post from a Russian friend just after Russia formally annexed Crimea. “I have never felt prouder to be Russian,” he beamed.

Russians were overjoyed. Putin built a bridge to connect occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland and hundreds of thousands of Russians moved there, to the warmer weather on the shores of the Black Sea.

Now Crimea is under siege. Miles-long traffic jams clog the Kerch bridge as Crimea residents either flee or go in search of fuel, now unavailable because of Ukraine’s attacks. Russian authorities in Crimea have decided to stop activating the air raid alerts because, they explain, the alarm would sound 22 hours a day.

How dangerous is this for Putin? It’s threatening enough that he is taking cover, limiting his public appearances. But a strongman can survive a long time without the support of regular citizens. More troubling for his prospects is the disenchantment with his rule by more powerful elements of Russian society.

As Ukraine’s assault intensifies, the greatest threat to Putin’s hold on power would come from the military. For now, he seems to enjoy their support. But losing wars can be a game changer for military men. And this war is turning uglier by the day – and not just on the battlefield.

One of the most dramatic shifts in opinion comes from the oligarchs, the men who have built colossal fortunes in the shadow of Putin’s protection. Now they, too, are quietly whispering their opposition to the president. That’s because the war has inflicted such a cost on the economy and on the government’s finances that Putin decided to “request” contributions, extracting billions from Russia’s wealthiest. The business community is appalled at the situation.

This is how the Financial Times describes it:

“Everyone is furious. People [in the Russian elite] are in full agreement this is a catastrophe,” a senior Russian businessman says. “It has to be resolved somehow.” He adds that Vladimir Putin, who has run Russia since the turn of the century, is “overwhelmingly unpopular” but also “old and stubborn”.

It’s not difficult to imagine that disillusioned oligarchs and military leaders could join forces against an increasingly embattled president. Their odds would be long, since Putin has built for himself a massive security apparatus. But the longer the war continues, the more vulnerable he becomes.

Despite the astonishing, accelerating pace of deaths among Russian troops and the precipitous drop in Putin’s standing, Ukraine is not aiming for regime change. As Putin insists that victory -- now defined as capturing the Donbas region and, of course, holding on to Crimea – is just around the corner, Zelensky says Ukraine’s only goal is to pressure Putin into ending the war. For the men sent into the war’s deadly vortex, that day can’t come soon enough.